Last Year's Predictions: How Accurate was I?

Last year, I made some predictions for this year. My predictions weren't too bold, but it's always a risky proposition to attempt to forecast the future. Let's take a look and see how they turned out.

1. The Economy - Turmoil and a Golden Opportunity

Verdict: Mostly Correct

I predicted 3 things here. First, that the economy would get worse. Second, that many businesses would fold. And finally that this would present a huge opportunity to savvy business owners and afford them the opportunity to expand.

The first two were spot on. The economy was miserable throughout 2009 for most businesses despite massive (and frankly absurd) levels of government spending. And many companies did indeed fold as customers tightened their belts and credit dried up.

It remains to be seen whether the third part of this prediction is accurate. It stands to reason that it will be, but there's scant evidence yet. The economy is still on very shaky ground, banks are still pretty stingy when it comes to lending, and VCs and angels are only just beginning to show renewed signs of life. All the signs are good and point to a much stronger 2010, but there's still an air of uncertainty.

Time will tell!

2. Customers Will Become More Choosy

Verdict: Correct

Okay, this was a pretty easy one. With businesses slashing jobs, high unemployment, a restriction of credit, and general doom and gloom, it would have taken a miracle for this one not to have come true.

This will carry over into next year too, but hopefully it should start to ease up as the economy comes off life-support.

3. Online Marketing Continues to Grow

Verdict: Correct

It stands to reason that companies, keen to ensure the best possible ROI, would increase their investment in online advertising. While many businesses cut their overall marketing budgets, the percentages spent online increased. Search advertising and social media marketing were particularly strong.

4. The Web Becomes Truly Device Independent

Verdict: Not Really

While the number of mobile users shot up in 2009, there was not the explosion in use that I anticipated. Oh well. If not this year, then next year! The mobile web boom is coming. Soon! Let's pencil it in for 2010.

The advice I gave last year is still valid though. You should prepare for this growth by ensuring you have a mobile-friendly website.

5. Social Networking Becomes Mainstream

Verdict: Correct

This one was a no-brainer. Much like the mobile web, the boom in social media has been brewing for years.

It's now officially mainstream. The fact that virtually every company is on Facebook and Twitter, and that many businesses are replacing their own website addresses in their ads with the links to their social profiles underscores just how mainstream social has become.

The next big thing? LoSo: Location-based social networking. Services like Foursquare and Gowalla that allow users to "check in" to real-world locations and share that information with their friends. The marketing possibilities here are endless, but right now the services have really only attained critical mass in a few select cities.

Overall

While my predictions may not have been earth-shatteringly daring, they were at least mostly correct.

What will next year bring? Let's hope it brings a bullish economy and much success to your business. In the meantime, relax and enjoy the holidays! May they be joyous and safe!

Salut!

Posted on Sunday, December 20, 2009 8:57 AM

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